The UN climate summit is under way in Doha, Qatar (the nation with the
highest per-capita carbon emissions in the world no less) and the heat is on to
set up a new international climate agreement. It is becoming increasingly unlikely that
global warming will be kept below 2°C according to Peters
et al (2012), highlighting the urgency that a deal be reached. However,
with key countries including the USA, Russia and Japan refusing to sign up to a
second commitment period for emissions reductions and tension running high in a
row over carbon
credits the outlook does not look good. REDD+ is one of the topics on the
table for discussion but there are already signs that formal inclusion may be pushed
back another year.
The climate change talks are taking place
in Doha, Qatar. Photograph: Osama Faisal/AP
Taken from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/29/climate-change-catastrophe-cop18-doha
Part of the dispute is over the need for a robust Monitoring, Reporting
and Verification (MRV) system for emissions reductions under REDD+ programs. It is essential that carbon estimates are accurate in order for carbon credits to be meaningful and for REDD+ to have any mitigating effects. Plugge
et al (2012) outline the difficulties in estimating carbon stocks and the
costs involved, suggesting that countries that already have low deforestation
rates are unlikely to benefit from REDD+. This is because the set-up costs to
accurately monitor carbon stocks would outweigh any potential financial gains. For
an overview of the methods available to estimate carbon stocks see “Monitoring
and estimating tropical forest carbon stocks: making REDD a reality” (Gibbs
et al 2007). Ranging from ground-based measurements to satellite remote
sensing, a combined approach is usually the most effective. When there are uncertainties
in carbon estimates the principle of conservativeness (yes I agree, a
ridiculous word) should be invoked to minimise the chance of overestimating
emissions reductions (Grassi
et al 2008), further reducing the financial incentives associated with
adopting REDD+ schemes.
The talks have a few days to run and if countries are willing to make compromises there is still a chance that an effective climate deal may be thrashed out. However, the part that REDD+ will
play in mitigating climate change is becoming increasingly uncertain. Stay
tuned to find out.
